Project Information

Researcher Koen Berends MSc
Position PhD Researcher
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Website Twentelogo
    researchgate linkedin
   
Supervision 
Suzanne Hulscher (University of Twente)
  Jord Warmink (University of Twente)
Ton Hoitink (Wageningen UR)
   
Duration  01/03/2015 - 01/12/2019
   
User committee  
Rijkswaterstaat
  Witteveen+Bos
HKV
Deltares
Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium

 19 Koen Berends web

 

About the project

F1 RiverCare KDD 2016Decisions in river management are often supported by complex physics-based numerical prediction models. While these models are built to be as accurate as possible, there has been growing awareness that uncertainty quantification can decrease the tendency towards conservative choices in engineering design. Furthermore, open communication and better understanding of the limitations of such models might increase credibility of its predictions.

In this research we deal with two problems of uncertainty analysis for hydraulic river models. In the first place, complex models often are too computationally demanding for Monte Carlo methods of uncertainty quantification. Secondly, existing uncertainty quantification methods are well established for systems that exhibit relatively little change. However, river systems can change quickly over a relatively short time span – both from natural processes as human intervention. Therefore, models with established accuracy on historical records might no longer be (as) valid for their intended purpose. For both probabilistic as deterministic use of models this might introduce a bias in their prediction.

The aim of this research is to study the drivers that govern applicability of calibrated models and use this knowledge to develop a method for efficient uncertainty estimation for models applied in river engineering. Read two-pages overview >>

 

Documents & Publications

2017

Conference proceedings

  • K.D. Berends, A. Fujisaki, J.J. Warmink, S.J.M.H. Hulscher, Automatic cross-section estimation from 2D model results. in Hoitink, A.J.F., de Ruijsscher, T.V., Geertsema, T.J., Makaske, B., Wallinga, J., Candel, J.H.J., Poelman, J. (Eds.): Book of abstracts NCR days 2017, NCR Publication 41-2017, 1-3 February 2017, Wageningen University & Research, pp. 66-67.

2016

Conference proceedings

  • Ji, U., Kang, J., Ryu, Y., Jung, S.H., Penning, W.E., Harezlak, V., Berends, B.D., Jang, C.-L., (2016). Stream-scale experiments on vegetated flows: flow measurement and analysis. In: G. Constantinescu, M. Garcia, D. Hanes (Eds.), Proceedings of the International Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics (River Flow 2016), 11-14 July, 2016, St. Louis, USA, pp.521-526.
  • Berends, K. D.,  J.J. Warmink, S.J.M.H. Hulscher (2016). Calibration and model performance decay in prediction of the effect of human intervention in river systems. In: G. Constantinescu, M. Garcia, D. Hanes (Eds.), Proceedings of the International Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics (River Flow 2016), 11-14 July, 2016, St. Louis, USA, pp. 2111-2117
  • Berends, K. D., J.J. Warmink, S.J.M.H. Hulscher (2016),  Additional challenges for uncertainty analysis in river engineering. European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2016, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 18, EGU2016-16138, 2016, 17 - 22 April 2016, Vienna, Austria.

2015

 Conference proceedings

  • Berends, K. D., J.J. Warmink, S.J.M.H. Hulscher (2015). Do we have too much confidence in our models. In: H.J.R. Lenders, F.P.L. Collas, G.W. Geerling, R.S.E.W. Leuven (Eds.). Bridging gaps between river science, governance and management. Book of abstracts NCR-days 2015, NCR Publication 39-2015, 1-2 October 2015, Radboud University, Nijmegen, pp. 89-92.
  • Berends, K. D., de Jongste, M. van der Mheen, W. Ottevanger (2015). Implementation and verification of morphology in SOBEK 3. In: H.J.R. Lenders, F.P.L. Collas, G.W. Geerling, R.S.E.W. Leuven (Eds.). Bridging gaps between river science, governance and management. Book of abstracts NCR-days 2015, NCR Publication 39-2015, 1-2 October 2015, Radboud University, Nijmegen, pp. 30-33.